Monday, July 06, 2015

The Draft will always be a Big Guessing Game

Sam Hinkie can forever ask Sixers fans to trust the process. But, until when?
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Consider these names: LeBron James, Allen Iverson, Tim Duncan, Anthony Davis, Blake Griffin, Yao Ming, Dwight Howard, Derrick Rose, John Wall, Kyrie Irving and even, Andrew Wiggins. What is the common denominator among these players? They were all number 1 picks who turned out to be franchise players and faces of the NBA.

On the other hand, consider these names: Michael Olowokandi, Kwame Brown, Anthony Bennett, Greg Oden, Andrea Bargani, Andrew Bogut and Joe Smith. Common Denominator? Well, they were also number 1 picks like the first group. Unfortunately, they did not necessarily pan out the way the teams that drafted them hoped they would. 

So, what am I really trying to drive at? Simple. No matter what scouts, executives, coaches and even, analysts do, there is really just no way that a group or a person can determine or even differentiate who among potential prospects will live up to expectations from those who will turn out as disappointments. 

Everyone acts like they know everything about everything they need to know about a player during the pre draft periods, draft night itself or even after the draft. Whether, a player is ready for the
NBA, or 2 years away from being 2 years away or will be a bust or will be a star, or whatever. Yet, at the end of the day, everyone is really just guessing. To make it sound more technical, probably inferring is a better term or maybe hypothesizing at that, or maybe even analyzing for some. Yet, come on man, let us not kid ourselves here. The draft is really just a guessing game. Who would have thought that Manu Ginobili in 1999 would turn out to be a future Hall of Famer and an eventual living legend in Argentina? No one did. Who would have thought that "The Greg Oden" from "The Ohio State University" would turn out to be Sam Bowie- like and not the Next Best Big Man in the NBA? I sure didn't. Who would have thought that a kid named Michael Jeffrey Jordan would turn out to be the G.O.A.T? I am pretty sure that Portland didn't. The point is, no one really knows period. 
The G.O.A.T was not even a 1st overall pick
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I am a very big fan of the draft. I really look forward to it, year in and year out. But I have to admit that sometimes I really feel bad when players get labelled as this and that. I mean, these guys have not even played a single second in the league and people are already telling them that they are not good enough. Sometimes, I just feel that it is so unfair as much as life is unfair as well. Yet, reality bites, that is just how it goes. And I guess, it is the very reason why I always cheer for guys who were overlooked and were heavily underrated by critics to succeed in one way or another (e.g. Draymond Green, Lou Williams, Monta Ellis, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, Ben Wallace,  Jordan Clarkson, Dennis Rodman, Jeremy Lin, Marc Gasol and many more). As I always told my high school students in CDSL, "Don't ever let anyone tell you that you can't do anything in life.  Just always put in the work and let it speak for you." 
The draft can be the biggest guessing game out there. Yet, the hard- work, commitment, dedication, time, passion and love that one puts into something that he or she would really like to have has nothing to do with guessing. The answer comes from the person himself to own it, do it and earn it.  

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